A New Approach to Risk: The Implications of E3

The fundamental thesis of this paper is that no matter how much physical science and technology are involved in complex systems, no system is ever purely or solely physical or technical. Certainly no system of which we are aware is purely scientifi c or technical in its operation or management. Furthermore, while research on and the modeling of complex systems usually rely heavily on the consideration of technological variables and processes, they typically fail to consider the contributions of individual psychological, organizational and contextual factors. This paper argues that we need models that avoid committing errors of the third kind, solving the wrong problem precisely. The paper sets out a mechanism for developing models that include contextual as well as technological variables. Risk Management (2009) 11, 30 – 43. doi: 10.1057/rm.2008.12